As the war grinds on, Ukrainian society is increasingly shedding its hopes for a swift resolution, adapting instead to the grim reality of a protracted conflict. According to a recent public opinion survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) between April 20 and 27, 2026, only 31% of Ukrainians expect the fighting to end by the conclusion of this year. Among them, a mere 17% hope for peace by the summer. In contrast, nearly half of the respondents—48%—forecast that the war will continue into 2027, with the majority of this group pointing to the second half of next year. An additional 21% remain uncertain about the timeline. These figures clearly indicate a paradigm shift: the nation is settling in for a marathon.
This psychological readiness for a long-term struggle has a direct impact on the public’s stance regarding potential peace formulas. The KIIS data vividly illustrates that the vast majority of citizens categorically reject any land-for-peace proposals. Even among the demographic that admits they can only endure the hardships of war for a short period, 44% view the idea of exchanging the Donbas region for security guarantees from the United States and Europe as absolutely unacceptable. Among those who say they are prepared to endure for “as long as it takes,” this rejection rate skyrockets to 69%.
When asked specifically about the possibility of withdrawing Ukrainian troops and handing over total control of the Donetsk region to the Russian Federation in exchange for Western security assurances, 57% of respondents declared such a move entirely unacceptable. While 36% indicated a reluctant willingness to consider this concession, the vast majority acknowledged it as an agonizingly difficult condition. KIIS analysts noted that public opinion on this matter has remained remarkably consistent. Previous studies have demonstrated that if Western guarantees are explicitly defined as excluding the deployment of foreign troops, establishing a no-fly zone, or providing free continuous weaponry, the support for such compromises evaporates completely.
The survey also highlights a growing disillusionment with the international community. Unsurprisingly, 60% of Ukrainians identify Russia as the primary force thwarting efforts to end the war. However, a notable segment of the population is beginning to lay blame on the West. Around 14% of respondents hold the United States responsible for the failure to achieve peace, while 5% point the finger at Europe, and 7% blame Ukraine itself.
This sentiment aligns with a sharp decline in trust regarding international security guarantees. Compared to a similar poll in January 2026, Ukrainian confidence in European security guarantees has fallen from 59% to 52%. Even more strikingly, trust in U.S. security guarantees has plummeted from 39% to 27%.
Conducted via telephone interviews with 1,005 respondents aged 18 and older, the survey captures a nation in the midst of a profound trial. Ukrainians are vividly aware that partial concessions are unlikely to secure lasting peace. As trust in external promises wavers, the resilience of the population remains anchored in the belief that true security can only be achieved through continued resistance and the preservation of national sovereignty, leaving no room for capitulation.