German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has made a bold and provocative statement suggesting that Ukraine may ultimately have to accept the loss of some of its sovereign territory as part of a future peace agreement with Russia. According to the German leader, such painful concessions could be the necessary price to pave the way for the country’s full accession to the European Union, Reuters reports. This rhetoric highlights a growing sense of pragmatism among European leaders regarding the potential endgame of the devastating war.
Speaking to students at the Carolus-Magnus-Gymnasium in Marsberg, a city in North Rhine-Westphalia, Merz addressed a scenario that has long been considered a political taboo in many Western capitals. “Sooner or later, Ukraine will sign a ceasefire agreement; hopefully, subsequently, a peace treaty with Russia. Then, perhaps, part of Ukraine’s territory will cease to belong to Ukraine,” he stated. These remarks from the head of Europe’s largest economy indicate a subtle but significant shift in diplomatic focus, moving away from the absolute necessity of a total battlefield victory toward exploring difficult compromises at the negotiating table.
The German Chancellor also outlined a political mechanism that he believes could help Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy legitimize such a profound shift to his people. Merz suggested that if Zelenskyy wants to secure public backing for territorial concessions, he might need to hold a national referendum. Crucially, the main argument presented to the electorate would be the promise of definitive European integration: “I have opened the path to Europe for you.” This proposed trade-off—exchanging territory for a secure, European future—represents a significant evolution in how Western allies view the postwar settlement.
Despite holding out the promise of an EU future, Merz firmly managed expectations regarding the timeline for Ukraine’s accession. He emphasized that joining the bloc while still actively at war is impossible. Furthermore, even after hostilities end, Kyiv must meet rigorous criteria, particularly concerning the rule of law, economic stability, and anti-corruption measures. “Zelenskyy floated the idea of joining the EU on January 1, 2027. That won’t work. Even January 1, 2028, is unrealistic,” the Chancellor firmly asserted. This timeline contrasts sharply with the aspirations of Ukrainian officials. For instance, Taras Kachka, Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration, had previously described 2027 as an extremely ambitious but theoretically possible target date for accession.
As an interim measure, Merz proposed granting Ukraine observer status within EU institutions. According to him, this idea garnered widespread support among European leaders during a recent summit in Cyprus, which President Zelenskyy attended. While such steps offer symbolic progress, Ukrainian diplomacy faces a complex and daunting challenge: maintaining robust military and financial support from key allies during a protracted conflict, while simultaneously resisting externally imposed scenarios that contradict the national constitution and the unwavering will of the Ukrainian people. The clear message from Berlin is that Ukraine’s road to Europe will be long, highly pragmatic, and likely fraught with painful choices.