As of April, Russian forces have been actively conceptualizing the creation of extensive “sanitary” or “buffer zones” along the Ukrainian border. The Kremlin’s strategic objective is to push back the Ukrainian Defense Forces and secure its own border regions. However, military and political experts heavily question whether Moscow possesses the necessary resources to execute these ambitious operations.
The Transnistrian and Vinnytsia Vector
Recent intelligence indicates that Moscow intends to establish a buffer zone bordering Ukraine’s Vinnytsia region, leveraging the territory of Russian-occupied Transnistria. Pavlo Palisa, Deputy Head of the Presidential Office and a former combat commander, addressed these concerns directly.
In an interview with RBC-Ukraine, Palisa noted: “For the first time, we have observed a specific point in their operational plans regarding the creation of a buffer zone in the Vinnytsia region from the direction of unrecognized Transnistria. Frankly, there is no need to panic, as I currently do not see them having the manpower or equipment to realize these intentions.”
Palisa added that while Russia still harbors desires to create similar zones in the Kharkiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv regions, neither side currently possesses the capability to drastically alter the tactical situation along the front line in the near future.
Northern Borders and the President’s Stance
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy fully corroborated Palisa’s assessment. The Head of State emphasized that the enemy’s ambitions extend across the entire border perimeter, including the Belarusian direction.
“The Russians want to create a buffer zone along the entire border. This includes the Chernihiv and Sumy regions. There is nothing fundamentally new here. As for Transnistria, to be honest, I do not see a concrete threat there today,” Zelenskyy stated.
The President highlighted that Russian forces are primarily concentrating their efforts on the southern front, specifically in the Zaporizhzhia sector. However, their paramount objective remains the Pokrovsk direction in the Donetsk region, which is a critical stronghold for Ukrainian defensive lines.
Military Assessment: The Failed 20-Kilometer Zone
According to the Ukrainian military command, Russian troops have been unsuccessfully attempting to establish a 20-kilometer buffer zone in the Sumy and Kharkiv regions for over a year.
Viktor Trehubov, a spokesperson for the Joint Forces, explained that this operation was initially designed to prevent cross-border incursions by Ukrainian forces. “This task has completely failed. Over this entire period, they have only managed to create a few penetration points, none of which reach the 20-kilometer mark. This goal remains unattainable for the Russians,” Trehubov stated.
Although the Russian Ministry of Defense routinely claims the capture of border settlements, these actions resemble isolated raids rather than the establishment of a continuous zone of control. Trehubov concluded that Moscow will likely continue to allocate forces for this task, but their true priorities lie in the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions, making a significant breakthrough in the north highly unlikely during the upcoming spring-summer campaign.