Russia is not winning its war against Ukraine, but rather facing a strategic defeat. This was stated by former U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg during a recent interview on Fox News. Kellogg highlighted that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have performed brilliantly, defying global expectations since the full-scale invasion began.
According to the former official, if Russia were truly winning, its forces would have long since advanced beyond the Dnieper River and captured major cities like Kharkiv and Kyiv. However, the reality on the ground contradicts Kremlin propaganda. Since 2014, Ukraine has maintained control over the vast majority of its territory, and Russian tactical progress remains painfully slow and costly.
Kellogg underscored that Russia has already suffered between 1.2 and 1.4 million casualties—killed or wounded. To put this into perspective, he noted that the Soviet Union lost roughly 18,000 soldiers during its entire decade-long war in Afghanistan. Despite these staggering losses, Russia still struggles to occupy even the entirety of the Donbas region. He advised Moscow to stop pretending that it can conquer the rest of Ukraine and instead start negotiating based on what it actually holds, acknowledging that its original objectives are unattainable.
Regarding the path toward a ceasefire, the former special envoy emphasized that this is primarily a European issue. He argued that European nations must take a more active role in determining the future security architecture of the region. Kellogg also issued a stark warning: if Ukraine were to relinquish its defensive positions in the Donbas, it would provide the Russian army with a corridor to push deeper into the country, threatening the stability of the entire state.
This analysis comes as current U.S. President Donald Trump has mentioned conducting ongoing discussions with both Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian leader Vladimir Putin. As diplomatic efforts intensify, the focus remains on whether Russia will finally acknowledge the mounting cost of its aggression and the fact that its military gamble has resulted in unprecedented human and material losses. Ultimately, the resilience shown by the Ukrainian military continues to be the decisive factor in shaping the strategic reality of the conflict.