15 April 2026, 10:18

Economist Explains Why the Hryvnia Could Shift Dramatically This Year

Економіст пояснив, чому гривня може різко змінитись вже цього року

Ukraine over-fulfilled its budget by 1.4 trillion hryvnias — and still wants to squeeze another 60 billion from the most vulnerable.

The budget was planned at 3.9 trillion UAH — but executed at 5.3 trillion UAH, a surplus of over 1.4 trillion hryvnias. Despite this, authorities continue to pressure small businesses, freelancers, female accountants, marketers, and IT workers — all for an additional 60 billion UAH, which amounts to just 6% of the surplus.

Economist Kukhar states plainly: this is not an IMF requirement — the memorandum is written and signed by Ukraine itself. These initiatives reflect the personal agenda of Hetmantsev, not international obligations.

Two million people, in the fifth year of war, risk becoming either tax evaders or simply unemployed. Kukhar calls this a sabotage strike against Ukraine’s own economy.

On the hryvnia and exchange rate — the expert is cautiously optimistic: Ukraine’s macroeconomic indicators are better than expected given wartime conditions. The IMF is cooperative and will remain so — program conditions are reviewed every three months.

On oil and geopolitics: the Middle East crisis is temporarily allowing Russia to circumvent sanctions. But once Russian funding of regional destabilization dries up, a new geopolitical balance will emerge — and pressure on Russian oil exports will intensify.

“The IMF is our partner, not a gulag warden. Let’s talk to them as partners.” — Kukhar