Since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Azerbaijan has increased its natural gas exports to the European Union by 65%, according to a report by President Ilham Aliyev during the IV Global Media Forum in Shusha. Baku plans to continue boosting production capacity to meet Europe’s growing demand.
Aliyev noted that immediately following the Russian invasion, the European Commission requested a rapid increase in gas supplies, a request Azerbaijan fulfilled. To sustain this momentum, the country is focusing on the ‘ACG Deep Gas’ project and improving efficiency across existing fields. By transitioning domestic consumption toward renewable energy, Azerbaijan aims to free up even more natural gas for the European market.
However, Aliyev pointed out a significant hurdle: the lack of sufficient transport infrastructure capacity. Ironically, the European ‘Green Deal’ has made it difficult to secure funding for infrastructure projects linked to fossil fuels. European banks have become increasingly hesitant to finance such pipelines, leaving a funding gap that threatens future expansion efforts. To mitigate these risks, Aliyev stressed the necessity of long-term contracts. He argued that without such legal assurances, the massive investments required to scale up production are too risky for the nation.
“We need to ensure that these investments will be profitable in the long run,” Aliyev stated. “We cannot build infrastructure only to be told later that our gas is no longer needed.” This push for long-term commitment is essential for energy security as Europe continues to divest from Russian energy dependence. Furthermore, Azerbaijan is exploring diversification routes, including potential access to Middle Eastern markets via Syria.
The discussions at the Shusha forum highlighted how energy strategy is deeply intertwined with broader regional security. In an era where Russia uses energy exports as a weapon, the importance of reliable, independent suppliers like Azerbaijan is paramount. As the continent shifts its geopolitical paradigm, the success of these long-term agreements will largely determine Europe’s economic stability in the coming years.