As the war against Ukraine drags on, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is increasingly facing a critical dilemma: whether to continue his military campaign or preserve the Russian state from systemic collapse. This assessment was shared by Kurt Volker, former US Special Representative for Ukraine, during an interview with LIGA.net. According to Volker, the total militarization of the Russian economy has created structural weaknesses that threaten the very foundation of the Russian Federation.
Volker pointed out that Putin has invested heavily in the invasion, reshaping the domestic economy to sustain the war effort. This extreme focus, however, drains resources from civilian sectors, sparks severe labor shortages, and drives up inflation. Consequently, the Russian leader is gradually weakening his own state. Volker suggests that Putin may eventually reach a breaking point where he is forced to choose between pursuing his imperial legacy and halting the war to stabilize the country’s fragile domestic situation.
Despite mounting economic pressures and devastating casualties, Putin reportedly still operates under the delusion that the West is weak and politically fragmented. He believes that sustained pressure will eventually force Ukraine’s allies to back down. However, the international coalition supporting Kyiv remains resilient, proving Putin’s assumptions wrong. The true challenge for the Kremlin, Volker notes, may arise if the conflict ends. Russia would then face the monumental task of reintegrating hundreds of thousands of demobilized soldiers and recruited convicts. This battle-hardened group, suffering from trauma and possessing criminal backgrounds, poses a massive threat of domestic instability and rising violence.
The diplomatic dimension of this conflict also highlights Moscow’s isolation. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently addressed Putin in an open letter, proposing a direct meeting in a neutral country to seek a sustainable peace. However, during the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), Putin rejected the initiative, labeling the letter ‘rude.’ This reaction underscores the Kremlin’s reluctance to engage in rational dialogue. Bound by his own aggressive rhetoric and a militarized state apparatus, Putin continues to guide Russia down a path of self-destruction, prioritizing personal ambitions over the survival of his country.